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first_img“If there are forces moving the euro/dollar rate around, that feeds into our global and European forecasts and our monetary policy setting,” Lane said.Indeed, some economists say that the current exchange rate could already deduct 0.2 percent-0.4 percent from euro zone growth and analysts polled by Reuters see more dollar weakness.Normally this would not be too difficult to counter but the ECB and the Bank of Japan are both close to the limits of ultra easy policy.Both have cut rates into negative territory and yields are already negative for much of the curve. Both banks also face some domestic opposition to more easing, making further moves politically complicated.“If the Fed is going to be late in raising interest rates, that would put upward pressure on the yen against the dollar,” said Hideo Kumano, a former BOJ official who is currently chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.“As long as Fed policy makes it harder for the dollar to rise, the BOJ will have to worry about potential yen rises that needs a policy response including a deepening of negative interest rates,” he said.Some economists argue that the ECB should simply shift to a similarly flexible target as part of its own ongoing policy review. But markets price no rate hike at all during Christine Lagarde’s eight-year term atop the bank, so a suggestion that policy tightening would be even further pushed out raises credibility issues.“Emerging market economies, which are largely dollar funded, will benefit, at least initially,” former ECB board member Benoit Coeure said. “Europe may need to find new ways to support its economy in the face of permanently lower US rates.”Social policy? The Fed’s now explicit aim to help low-income families is another complication as it elevates the role of the bank in social policy and could be seen as a sort of reinterpretation of its mandate.“Personally, I feel there is room to consider the idea, voiced by some people, that monetary policy should focus more on job and income conditions,” BOJ Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe said.The ECB also appears keen to reinterpret its mandate with Lagarde arguing that risks created by climate change are so big, the bank could not ignore them.But central bankers are unelected bureaucrats and fighting climate change or inequality is a foray into politics, which risks opening their banks to the sort of political attacks that could undermine independence.The ECB argues that its mandate already requires it to support the “general economic policies” of the European Union, but such an interpretation would still represent a shift given its current focus that is entirely inflation focused.Still, some argue that the Fed’s shift will prove to be benign.Lower dollar rates will cut funding costs in emerging markets, accelerating growth and providing a bigger market for exports. And letting US inflation run higher now, will raise both long term rates and inflation expectations, making it easier to normalize policy after years of extraordinary accommodation.These may prove to be true, but that will not be evident for years to come. And until then, central banks must deal with a weaker dollar.Topics : The United States Federal Reserve’s landmark shift to a more tolerant stance on inflation will be a drag on the dollar for years and will raise hard questions about the role of central banking, challenging policymakers from Frankfurt to Tokyo.On the face of it, the Fed’s policy tweak, unveiled on Aug. 27, appears tailored to giving the US economy a shot in the arm. A shift to average inflation targeting lets the Fed overshoot its target after downturns, indicating that rate hikes will come later and the jobs market will be allowed to run hotter, a boon to low-income families.But this creates two headaches for global central banks. Such a reinterpretation of the Fed’s mandate could be seen as a foray into social policy, a vital precedent for others as they reexamine their own roles after years of unconventional moves that already impact wealth and income distribution.The second, more immediate concern will be the dollar’s weakness, which hurts exporters from Europe to Asia. This is bound to feature prominently at the European Central Bank’s policy meeting on Thursday, as a strong euro will make it more difficult for exporting nations in the euro zone to climb out of their deepest recession in living memory.Countries like Germany and France, or Japan, traditionally generate growth from net exports, which take a hit when their currencies firm. And this firming merely compounds their problem as trade wars between the United States and some of its key trade partners are already weighing on exports.The dollar has already weakened by over 10 percent against a basket of currencies since mid-March to a more than two-year low, prompting ECB chief economist Philip Lane to warn last week that the exchange rate mattered, even if the ECB didn’t target it.last_img read more

first_imgComing Out: Young Donegal man Ayrton Kelly continues his column series with DonegalDaily.com giving an insight into his journey in the LGBTI+ community and life in Donegal.Read Ayrton’s first three posts here:– Growing up Gay in Donegal– ‘New Year, New Me’ was never so true– We have come a long way for LGBTI+ Equality. but we can still do better This week, Ayrton looks towards future of equality and the ‘National LGBTI+ Youth Strategy’.Minister Katherine ZapponeThe rural-urban divide in Ireland is as clear as day in Donegal – Ireland’s Forgotten County. This divide affects everyone and everything. Inequality is often exacerbated as a result of the chasm between rural counties and metropolitan areas. While Donegal is the Republic of Ireland’s fourth largest county by size and eighth largest by population. It is an incredible county and I loved growing up here but, if you’re LGBTI+ there is a serious lack of visibility, awareness and support that is available in the capital.One prime example is with regard to sexual health services. Letterkenny GUM (genitourinary medicine) or sexual health clinic runs once every Thursday evening from Letterkenny University Hospital. Conversely, in Dublin, St. James’ Hospital has a dedicated GUIDE  Clinic every day of the week while the GMHS (Gay Men’s Health Service) operates from Baggot Street Hospital four days of the week and offers tailored, specific medical care to gay men who are most at risk of contracting STIs and HIV (Department of Health, 2015). In terms of Youth Service provision, Donegal Youth Service is also based in Letterkenny as is BreakOUT. However, over the years BreakOUT has grown and has groups in Letterkenny, Ballybofey, Glenties and Moville and offers a safe and supportive place for young LGBTI+ people and their friends/allies in addition to information, training and one-to-one support, all of which I have availed of in my time. Conversely, Dublin has BeLonG To, TENI, the Outhouse and other specific supports not as readily available in the North West.A lack of public transport and socio-economic disadvantage will hinder a young LGBTI+ person’s ability to seek help and support in Donegal compared to their counterparts in the Greater Dublin Area who can hop on a Luas, Dublin Bus or DART at relatively low cost and high frequency.Donegal is quite a conservative county. We saw this during the recent Referendum to remove the Eighth Amendment (Article 40.3.3) of the Constitution of Ireland, and even before that in 2015 where – 50% of Donegal people said Yes to Equality compared to 70% in Dublin.And yet, I don’t think there is as much homophobia in Donegal or Ireland as there once was, but a lack of visibility in rural counties devoid young people of the opportunity to think about the impact of using words like ‘fag’, ‘tranny,’ or ‘gay’ in a derogatory sense. From experience, a lot of the time it is not malice, but ignorance and habit that words like these are used. Compared to the general youth population, young LGBTI+ people are twice as likely to self harm; three times more likely to attempt suicide and four times more likely to suffer from severe mental health issues (BeLonGTo & GLEN, 2016). Body image and eating disorders, substance use and abuse (drugs, alcohol and tobacco), cutting, homelessness, and STIs are some of many issues that are statistically more likely to affect the LGBTI+ population than the non-LGBTI+ population.It is true that every young person in Ireland has a tough time growing up. But evidence has shown that young LGBTI+ are disproportionately disadvantaged. The National Youth Strategy 2015-2020 and the Brighter Outcomes, Better Futures framework have tried and failed to deal with the nuanced needs of the young LGBTI+ people of Ireland and have not reacted effectively enough.‘Everyone benefits’ With the publishing of the National LGBTI+ Youth Strategy (DCYA, 2018) there are 59 specific actions that will aim to make Ireland a better, more equal place for all its young people.The strategy does not benefit young LGBTI+ people to the detriment of the non-LGBTI+ young people. If we have better sexual health services, better SPHE and RSE, more rigorous anti-bullying procedures, better access to Youth Services, more awareness around mental health, and better visibility of leaders that are LGBTI+ then everyone benefits. In order to achieve equality that we so desperately want and need here in the Republic of Ireland, we accept people for who they are; to be supportive and to ensure all young people feel valued.Ayrton Kelly is 20 years old and from Letterkenny, Co. Donegal. He is studying Business and French in UCD and before that attended St Eunan’s College. By working with Donegal Youth Service, UCD Students’ Union, Foróige, Youth Work Ireland, BeLonG To and the Department of Children and Youth Affairs has become interested in equality and social Justice. Most recently, he was on the Youth Advisory Group and Oversight Committee for the National LGBTI+ Youth Strategy.BreakOut is a project for young LGBTI people, LGBTI Allies and young people that believe in social justice aged 12-30, and is operated by Donegal Youth Service.  Currently there are groups meeting up regularly in Letterkenny, Ballybofey, Glenties and Moville offering information, training, one-to-one support and guaranteed craic. If you would like to come along and see what it’s all about contact Sinead Murray on 074 91 29630/086 124 7968, pop in to 16-18 Port Road, or find BreakOut on Facebook.Coming Out: What does the future hold for young LGBTI+ people in Donegal? was last modified: August 3rd, 2018 by Staff WriterShare this:Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window)Click to share on Pocket (Opens in new window)Click to share on Telegram (Opens in new window)Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window)Click to share on Skype (Opens in new window)Click to print (Opens in new window)Tags:Ayrton Kellycoming outLGBTIsexualitylast_img read more

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